The day after and the next 100 days
The other day, the Chief Minister of Maharashtra called for more soldiers to join the battle against covid-19. After the inevitable victory, the many brave ones out on the frontlines will get to go home. And the millions of us, who have been staying home to make the win a little easier, will emerge.
That is when the second call will go out. That call will be for workers to return.
Millions of migrants are either locked in or back home. Every piece of news (fake and real) increases the fear factor. The businesses that are limping barely manage with a fraction of the required labor complement. Obviously, staying alive comes before keeping a job.
They are gone; will they return?
I recently got a personal taste of things to come when the chief of the security team that takes care of our apartment complex in Mumbai delivered some grim news. “Those of us who went to our villages do not want to come back even after the lockdown is lifted,” he said. “And many of us who are still here want to return to our villages as soon as the trains and buses start.”
A friend who owns a successful medium-scale manufacturing unit dreads re-opening his unit. He was forced to down the shutters with barely any notice. He has no idea in what state the machinery would be. And he is not at all sure of getting his workers back. “We may all beat the virus,” he says. “But after that we will have to start from square minus one. Never have all of us been so scared before. How do I convince my senior supervisor that the virus will not come back when I don’t know my own status tomorrow? What about wages? stocks? customers? I dread to think of the day after.”
When everyone hurries back to the drawing board, what does it mean to your supply chain? Or those who you supply to? Is this an opportunity wrapped in a challenge or a disaster ticking down?
Accelerated innovation
While the small and medium enterprises do not like what the disinfected crystal ball shows them, the global technology giants are seeing an opportunity to strengthen their grip and to arrest the decline in their goodwill. As The Economist reported, the need for economic resilience will now be used as a strong argument against breaking up the biggest tech companies.
It may not be your brother, but technology will be the new Big Enabler, who will never stop watching you. While the few humans on the floor will be kept safely away from one another, technology is set to take over the factory. Anna Shedletsky, the boss of Instrumental, a firm which uses machine learning to help manufacturers improve their processes, thinks that, five years of innovating in electronics manufacturing will happen in the next 18 months.
You can no longer risk having supplier’s (or the customer’s) experts hanging around just to ensure that the complex machinery sticks to the expected nano specs. Instrumental sells a system that lets users monitor each stage of production and explore the causes of any flaws. The data lets engineers inspect and manage production from anywhere the world.
The next 100: abundant technology, scarce people
Every textbook on Economics will still tell you that an economy is founded on four pillars—land, labor, capital and entrepreneurship. If someone were to write a new book on post-covid economics, perhaps it would feature some new pillars.
Like entrepreneurship (innovative, enterprising, agile), technology (the never-blinking eye on the assembly line as well as your vital signs) and people (multi-tasking, location-independent, empathetic, educated, skilled). With most people working from home, you won’t need a multi-floor office now. Nor will it be easy to get just the kind of versatile human (emotional, vulnerable) resources you need.
For every business, more so if you own an SME, the next 100 days will be challenging. You will need to watch, learn and evolve and take your people along. One hundred days will be the new long term.